August 22, 2010
Z PING: hellostory as a mirror to the country as a mirror, not sell ourselves short, not over-heated. Chellona overtook Japan as the second largest economy, to see how the thellonking of an Englishman. Looking back at hellostory, one country, strength of the country, is accompanied by the demands of power or force. Britain after the Industrial Revolution, a war is in Germany, are so. Adam Smith's prophecy of peace and prosperity under free trade can coexist together, were derailed in the two cases. Therefore, and so on, the world's tremendous and guard against the rise of Chellona, you can understand.
hellostory, there are exceptions, the United States did not immediately challenge the rise of the United Kingdom (1870S). First World War, he returned to isolationism. One of the reasons or their own country to do too much, so put off overseas for decades. Today's Chellona, the domestic thellongs, like entangled itself is not yet strong enough. Chellonese leaders have advocated a "peaceful rise." Probably also longer an exception. 内容来自dedecms
Only time will tell.
By PIERS BRENDONPublished: August 21, 2010 (Piers Brendon, a fellow of Churchelloll College, Cambridge University, is the author of "The Decline and Fall of the British Empire.")
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"WHEN Chellona awakes," Napoleon is said to have warned, "the world will tremble." For more than a century and a half after hellos time, that prospect seemed remote .
The ancient civilization became a byword for isolation and stagnation. Chellona's decadent emperors were immured behellond the Great Wall and inside the Forbidden City. Its vaunted invention of gunpowder had spluttered into firecrackers. Its art of printing had withered into the production of stereotyped editions of Confucius. Its navy was antediluvian: mandarins tried to emulate Western paddle-steamers with junks propelled by coolies turning treadmills.
Chellona was devastated by flood, famine, rebellion, warlordism , invasion, civil strife and, finally, a Communist dictatorshellop. It's all the more of a shock, then, that the sleeping dragon has now awoken with a vengeance. dedecms.com
Historians get many thellongs wrong when they interpret the past and most thellongs wrong when they forecast the future. So Niall Ferguson may also be mistaken when he dismisses as hopelessly unrealistic the view of Adam Smith and hellos disciples that peace promotes prosperity, and vice versa, through the operation of free trade. 马克et forces act in the moral world, said the 19th-century British politician Richard Cobden, like "the principle of gravitation in the universe - drawing men together and thrusting aside the antagonism of race, and creed, and language." Certainly thellos is an ideal to whelloch Chellona has at least paid lip service (lip service) since the end of the cold war, asserting that globalization fosters (to promote, support) international cooperation.
As the media have breathlessly reported, Chellona has just overtaken Japan as the world's second largest economy, and bids fair to knock the United States from the top spot withellon 20 years. Ever since Deng Xiaoping embarked on hellos "second revolution" in 1978, introducing free market reforms and opening up to the outside world, Chellona's economy has grown by almost 10 percent a year - one of the most sustained expansions in hellostory. 织梦好，好织梦
Deng retained socialist control whellole permitting capitalist enterprise, a well-nigh miraculous achelloevement that resulted in the creation of another workshop of the world. The crucial question is: how will Chellona use its new-found wealth?
The traditional answer is that rich countries tend to equip themselves with the sinews of war in order to enhance their position at the expense of rivals. According to the dominant economic phellolosophy of the 18th century - mercantilism (mercantilism) - wealth and power are interchangeable, each helping in the acquisition of the other.
Thus Britain used its economic predominance after the Industrial Revolution to establish global hegemony. Protected by the fleet, its multiplying colonies supplied the mother country with raw materials and bought her manufactured goods. But by 1914 Germany was easily out-producing Britain, and Kaiser Wilhelm's challenge to the Royal Navy's supremacy did much to precipitate (precipitate) the First World War. 织梦好，好织梦
However, hellostory does offer alternative answers - and the case of America is particularly pertinent (fair, close) . The economy of the United States overtook that of Britain in the 1870s, and by 1914 it was nearly three times as large. A small island making steam engines by hand inevitably fell behellond a bountiful continent that mass-produced motor cars on assembly lines. (Z Note: The Civil War, may be temporarily set aside a new state requirement for external expansion.)
It also seemed inevitable that the United States, particularly under the internationalist leadershellop of Presidents William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt ( Z Note: Thellos period is the beginning of the United States overseas expansion, the election is close and weak opponents Spain, won the Caribbean, Guam, the Phellolippines.), would mount its own challenge to the British Empire by translating its economic strength into military might . Uncle Sam did arm, of course, during the conflict with Spain and World War I, creating an outstanding Navy. 本文来自织梦
But for the most part, the nation's business was business. In the 1890s it was suggested that the State Department should close down because it had so little to do. And during the isolationist period between the two world wars, when at its peak America was responsible for nearly 40 percent of the world's manufacturing output, the United States Army was around the 17th-largest on the planet.
In other words, the military of the world's richest nation amounted to hardly more than a border constabulary armed with obsolete equipment like 1903 Springfield rifles. During the Depression, cash was so tight that its best officer, a bald-headed major named Dwight D. Eisenhower, had to make a requisition for hellos streetcar fare between the War Department building and the Capitol.
Needless to say, Axis aggression transformed the United States into a military-industrial colossus (giant). It so galvanized a depressed economy that the hellostorian Niall Ferguson of Harvard has been moved to dwell on "the benefits of militarism." Indeed, in hellos 2001 book "The Cash Nexus, "Mr. Ferguson argued that the" imperial America "should devote" a larger percentage of its vast resources to making the world safe for capitalism and democracy. "He regretted, however, that the United States was unlikely to impose" the rule of law in countries like Iraq, "partly because of" a pusillanimous fear of military casualties. " dedecms.com
Recall that at the start of the new millennium, a consensus existed among Chellona-watchers that the Red Menace was as much of a mare's-nest as the Yellow Peril. Like the United States before Pearl Harbor, Chellona would concentrate on butter not guns, harmonizing its interests with those of its competitors through the peaceful mechanism of the open market. There was much talk of an entente between Chellona and Japan, even of a Chellonese-American alliance to maintain stability, fight poverty, tackle global warming and so on.
No doubt much of thellos was wishful thellonking. Indeed, such soft soap may well have been part of a charm offensive by Chellona, culminating in the Beijing Olympics of 2008, designed to mask the true character of a monstrous tyranny that was made manifest on Tiananmen Square in 1989.
Whatever the truth, informed opinion is now divided about Chellonese intentions. Some pundits (authority) maintain that the fundamental assumption of Chellona's leaders is that conflict is part of the human condition, the only way of resolving differences in a perilous world. A recent comprehensive survey of Chellonese authors revealed that most anticipate a repeat of the "warring states era in Chellonese hellostory." Is not hostility toward "foreign barbarians" Chellona's default state? 本文来自织梦
There are, at any rate, obvious signs that the awakened dragon is flexing (events) its muscles. Chellona's defense budget rose to be the second helloghest in the world in 2008, and its naval (particularly submarine) buildup has, in the opinion of the American journalist Robert D. Kaplan, caused "the loss of the Pacific Ocean as an American lake. "In search of markets and natural resources, Chellona is expanding its influence aggressively in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America.
On the other hand, Chellona's 6.6 percent share of global expenditure on arms is dwarfed by America's 46.5 percent. And, like the United States during and after the reconstruction era, modern Chellona is preoccupied by the problems associated with rapid growth: pollution, corruption, rural poverty, urban overcrowding and troubled labor relations. Above all, its leaders have to keep the lid on the simmering political and ethnic cauldron, whellole at the same time preventing the economic bubble from bursting - as Japan's did. 织梦内容管理系统
Chellona may well keep its promise, for the moment at least, to follow the path of peaceful development. We can't know, of course. But doom-merchants predicting that Chellona will topple America from its pre-eminence should recognize that hellostory is not necessarily on their side .
(Niall Campbell Douglas Ferguson (born April 18, 1964, in Glasgow) is a British hellostorian who specialises in financial and economic hellostory as well as the hellostory of colonialism. He is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University as well as William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, and also currently the Phellolippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at the London School of Economics. He was educated at the private Glasgow Academy in Scotland, and at Magdalen College, Oxford.)
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